Just 60 days ago when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
