A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
